Playing with God's own creation

• Ladakh, 2010 - officially more than 250
• Uttarakhand, 2013 - officially more than 5700
• Kerala, 2018 - officially more than 1000 so far and counting, estimated damages in the order of $3 billion

As the fight rages on social media as to who should give the money for aid / relief and who should be taking that, let's take a moment to retrospect on what caused this deluge in Kerala. A crisp answer to this question would be simple: 'unprecedented heavy rainfall' which is way more than the expected average. But was that all? It is no doubt excessive rainfall is the reason for Kerala as was for Ladakh and Uttarakhand but there is something more to the tragic story every time.

For Ladakh the amount of water the cloudburst dumped on 6th August, 2017 was truly exceptional. The region is a cold desert and on an average receives around 100 mm of rainfall all through the year. However in that one night within a few hours time span it received more than 250 mm rainfall.

It was a freak occurrence and it seems which no one predicted coming and hence none got any time to be prepared. Coupled with the loose soil of region, because of the absence of trees in desert, water from the upper reaches raced down with rocks and debris crushing villages and people down hill; the flash flood hit the population middle of night in their sleep.

Even though we may exclude Ladakh as an exceptional case, when we turn our attention towards the Uttarakhand floods of 2013 we see many aspects of the same getting repeated in Kerala in 2018. Uttarakhand received 375% more than the expected rainfall between June 14th and 17th of that year which directly resulted in the deluge. But experts point to some other factors which helped to magnify the damage caused.

• Poor coordination between weather forecasting agencies and administration. Not much heed was paid to the early warning of heavy rainfall.
• Heavy construction and tunneling for more than 70 hydro electric projects across the hills had violated the integrity and environmental balance
• Rampant construction and infrastructure projects degraded the ecological balance

Impact of all these were quite visible in the large number of landslides which occurred during the calamity; a direct impact of the destruction of tree cover whose roots help to hold the loose soil and also impede the land slides. In Uttarakhand we also saw how debris of rocks, boulder and soil crushed humans, animals and settlements ultimately dumping the mass into the river bed. The river bed got clogged by such land slides and were unable to hold the excess water volume which came with the rain.

While trying to understand the reasons behind the disaster in Kerala, I felt that Kerala of 2018 bears a lot of commonality with Uttarakhand of 2013.

The South West branch of Monsoon enters Indian sub-continent from Arabian Sea. Kerala, Goa, Karnataka and Maharashtra along the western coast of India are the states to first experience rains from the monsoon winds which are blocked by the Western Ghats. The average rainfall in Kerala always has been on the higher side but this year it was expected to be in 'excess'.

In fact it looks like that IMD had predicted a more than 250% departure from normal rainfall this year. And there were predictions coming in from multiple quarters on the heavy rainfall striking since the mid of June but the question is whether administration chose to ignore such early warnings. Even though rains had started lashing since end of July, it was not until the first of August that the force intensified. It cannot be denied evacuation could be a nightmare not only logistically but also psychologically in terms of convincing to pay attention to the vagaries of nature. But still an honest attempt could be made to stay prepared and not fend for options when the force strikes.

Responding to Supreme Court as part of a plea submitted by a Kerala resident, the Kerala government responded that one of the Secretaries had 'written' to the Tamil Nadu government to control the release of water from Mullaperiyar Dam which is the third largest reservoir in the Periyar basin.

Did you notice that it was 'written' ! While collecting votes the leaders 'fly' in choppers and private jets but when it comes to lives of people they 'write' letters; considering government protocols I don't think it was a email but hopefully something which traveled faster than snail mail. Why not pick up the phone and talk?

It is surprising that ultimately the highest court had intervene picture just to ask Tamil Nadu government what water level should it maintain in it's dam. It almost seems you always need the teacher's cane to make the naughty child fall in line. Had there been a better understanding, coordination and friendliness between the states may be one reason of the disaster could have been averted.

Another reason oft cited in the news is the manner in which the flood gates of the dams in Kerala were opened. The engineers waited till the last moment for the dam reservoirs to be filled before opening the gates. Correspondingly a large volume of water was released from the dam at once which was more than what the narrow silted river downstream could digest and hence the resultant floods.
Questions are being raised whether the engineers could have done a better job by doing a controlled release of water starting early and not wait till the last moment. I think over here a reliable weather forecasting apparatus working in tandem with the dam engineers on ground has a role to play.

It could be that the engineers expected the rains to subside and the reservoirs would hold thus avoiding any damage. If it has been the case of a one or two dams the it could still be passed as a case of miscalculation or erroneous judgement. However if it turns out to be true that the shutter of more than 40 dams across the state were opened simultaneously then there is something grossly wrong the management of these artificial barriers.Once the dam shutters were let open water gushed down but the river beyond the dam was not wide and deep enough to handle the volume.

Western Ghats are one of the most ecologically sensitive areas of our country but recommendations by expert panels (like Gadgil Commission) along with environmental laws are flouted in the area. Years of malpractices which includes mining resulted in soil erosion which silted the river bed thus decreasing it's carrying capacity. As per newspaper reports beyond Idukki Dam the Periyar river is filled with islands which popped up from the deposited soil. This was complicated by the rampant encroachment of the river banks which reduced the actual river to a narrow channel. Landslides have also struck the state across multiple locations which could be directly attributed to loosening of the soil caused by mining and deforestation.

Thus when water came rushing down there was no way for escape left. It was time to return back everything that was taken away from the Periyar. Similar situation raged across the state from north to south with 13 of the state's 14 districts being hit by the flood.

As the state still fights to manage the dreadful situation different and contrasting news items keep on coming. There are some reports available which say Idukki shutters were opened with ample warning and hence damage was less while for others no planning was done and hence people didn't even get the time run for their lives. And then there are reports pointing that most of dams didn't have proper inundation plan and map which could be used in the disaster management.

At present administration,  disaster management agencies and armed forces are engaged over time on a war footing to ensure safety of the population. There is a looming threat of epidemic and diseases hanging which needs to be countered as well. It will take years to rebuild Kerala. Last time a flood of such magnitude hit the state was back in 1924.

However once the water settles down a proper fact finding and introspection should be done on the reasons of for such devastating flash floods. It happened in Ladakh, Uttarakhand but not much lessons were learnt. Kerala has got ample similarities with happened in Uttarakhand. Hopefully some lessons will be learnt.

References:

• https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/flood-scan-on-dam-map-gap-254085
• https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/sudden-water-release-by-tamil-nadu-from-mullaperiyar-a-reason-for-deluge-kerala-to-sc/articleshow/65519730.cms
• https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/sc-orders-to-maintain-water-level-of-mullaperiyar-dam-at-139-ft-dgtl-254348?ref=india-ft-stry
• https://www.dailyo.in/variety/kerala-floods-central-water-commission-not-time-for-blame-game-but-why-dont-we-have-any-emergency-plan/story/1/26182.html
• https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-ignored-warnings-of-kerala-flood-disaster-say-experts-1903936
• https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/uttarakhand-government-ignored-met-warning-41421
• https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/kerala-saw-unprecedented-rains-there-are-also-man-made-causes-flooding-86870